Thứ Hai, 15 tháng 7, 2013

Why plane crashes are survivable



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7c046 130707184658 52 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Asiana Airlines Flight 214 sits just off the runway at San Francisco International Airport on Sunday, July 7, in a handout photo from the National Transportation Safety Board. The Boeing 777 coming from Seoul, South Korea, crashed on landing on Saturday, July 6.


7c046 130707184655 51 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!On July 7, the NTSB released this photo showing the inside of the aircraft.


7c046 130707184710 56 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!An investigator photographs part of the landing gear at the crash site in a handout released on July 7. The NTSB’s preliminary assessment of the plane’s cockpit and flight data recorders shows the flight was coming in too slow and too low.


7c046 130707184710 55 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!An investigator inspects the broken-off tail of the plane in a handout photo released July 7. The crash killed two people, injured 182 and forced the temporary closure of one of the country’s largest airports.


7c046 130707184704 54 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!An investigator stands near the tail of the plane in a handout photo released on July 7. The NTSB has ruled out weather as a problem and said that conditions were right for a “visual landing.”


7c046 130707184701 53 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Investigators approach the crash in a handout photo released on July 7.


97b1c 130706175304 san francisco plane crash 19 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Fire crews attempt to quench the blaze on Saturday, July 6.


97b1c 130706200214 27 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Smoke rises from the crash site across the San Francisco Bay on July 6.


97b1c 130706203109 36 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Asiana Airlines Flight 214 remains on the runway on July 6.


97b1c 130706211335 49 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!A plane sits on the runway on July 6 while emergency crews tend to the crash site.


97b1c 130706210908 48 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!A helicopter flies above the wreckage on July 6 as people observe from across the waters of San Francisco Bay.


97b1c 130706204128 37 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Travelers at San Francisco International Airport look at the departures and arrivals board after Asiana Flight 214 crashed on July 6. The airport, located 12 miles south of downtown San Francisco, is California’s second busiest, behind Los Angeles International.


97b1c 130706204426 38 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Kevin Cheng talks on his phone as he waits in the terminal after Asiana Airlines Flight 214 crash-landed on July 6. He said he was supposed to pick up students who were on board the flight from Seoul.


97b1c 130706204557 39 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Passengers wait for the British Airways counter to reopen at San Francisco International Airport on July 6.


e0fe3 130706204754 40 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Police guard the Reflection Room at the San Francisco airport’s international terminal, where passengers from Asiana Airlines Flight 214 were reportedly gathering after the crash landing on July 6.


e0fe3 130706204953 41 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!People are escorted from the Reflection Room at the San Francisco International Airport on July 6.


e0fe3 130706205211 42 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Traffic backs up on U.S. Route 101 South in San Francisco on July 6. The Bay Area airport was closed to incoming and departing traffic after the crash, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.


e0fe3 130706205410 43 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!People look over the wreckage across a cove in San Francisco Bay on July 6.


e0fe3 130706205550 44 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Deborah Hersman, chairwoman of the National Transportation Safety Board, speaks to the press at Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, before departing for San Francisco with an NTSB crew on July 6 to investigate the crash site.


e0fe3 130706205815 45 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!The San Francisco Giants observe a moment of silence for those killed and hurt in the crash before their baseball game on July 6 against the Los Angeles Dodgers at ATT Park in San Francisco.


e0fe3 130706210158 46 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Crews comb the end of a San Francisco airport runway following the crash landing on July 6.


e0fe3 130706210639 47 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!People in Seoul watch a news program reporting about the crash landing on July 6 in San Francisco. Asiana Airlines Flight 214 took off from Seoul earlier Saturday.


e0fe3 130706211512 50 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!The plane crashed on July 6 around 11:30 a.m. (2:30 p.m. ET).


4e982 130706211751 51 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!People walk past the wreckage of the plane’s tail on July 6.


4e982 130706195626 26 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!The burned-out plane remains on the runway on July 6. Passengers and crew members escaped down the emergency inflatable slides.


4e982 130706200753 29 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Rescue workers tend to the crash site on July 6.


4e982 130706200934 30 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Debris litters the runway on July 6.


4e982 130706200335 28 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Airport shuttles arrive on the scene after the crash landing.


4e982 130706201355 32 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Wreckage from the Boeing 777 lies on the tarmac on July 6.


4e982 130706201133 31 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Crews surround the remains of the plane on July 6.


4e982 130706201822 33 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Investigators pass the detached tail and landing gear of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 on July 6.


4e982 130706202506 34 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!An aerial view shows the site of the crash landing between the runways on July 6.


cad0d 130706202634 35 san francisco plane crash horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Smoke rises from the crash site on July 6 at the airport in San Francisco.


cad0d 130706175318 san francisco plane crash 25 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Fire crews work at the crash site at San Francisco International Airport on July 6.


cad0d 130706175313 san francisco plane crash 23 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!The Boeing 777 lies burned on the runway after it crashed landed on July 6.


cad0d 130706175315 san francisco plane crash 24 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!An aerial photo of the scene on July 6 shows the extent of the plane’s damage.


cad0d 130706175307 san francisco plane crash 20 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!The burned-out plane sits surrounded by emergency vehicles on July 6.


cad0d 130706172615 san francisco plane crash 17 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!CNN iReporter Amanda Painter took this photo while waiting at the San Francisco airport on July 6. The entire airport has shut down and flights diverted to other airports.


cad0d 130706172612 san francisco plane crash 16 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!iReporter Val Vaden captured this photo while waiting in a departure lounge at the San Francisco airport on July 6. Val observed the billowing smoke and emergency responders’ rush in.


cad0d 130706154452 san fransisco plane crash 04 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!iReporter Sven Duenwald was at home on July 6 when he saw smoke rising into the air near the San Francisco International Airport.


cad0d 130706171843 san francisco plane crash 22 horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!iReporter Timothy Clark was standing on the eighth floor of the Embassy Suites Airport Hotel when he heard a loud crashing sound from outside. “My daughter told me she heard a plane crash. I used my camera to get a clearer view and I could see a dust cloud. Then people running from the plane, then flames,” he said.


cad0d 130706195506 san francisco plane crash 15b horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!A photo provided to CNN by Eunice Bird Rah — and shot by her father, who was a passenger on the plane — shows flames and smoke bursting out of many of the aircraft’s windows.


8e278 130706190825 san francisco plane crash 18b horizontal gallery Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!David Eun, a passenger on Asiana Airlines Flight 214, posted this image to Path.com along with the message, “I just crash landed at SFO. Tail ripped off. Most everyone seems fine, I’m ok. Surreal…” It was one of the first photographs taken after the crash.


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Editor’s note: Arnold Barnett is the George Eastman Professor of Management Science and professor of statistics at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. An aviation safety expert, he has worked for the Federal Aviation Administration, Transportation Security Administration and two dozen airlines and airports. He was awarded the 2002 President’s Citation from the Flight Safety Foundation for “truly outstanding contributions with respect to safety.”


(CNN) — I write this piece with some trepidation, because people are understandably troubled by the crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 and want to know why it happened. They do not want to hear that it “could have been worse,” that such events are extremely rare or that the causes of the accident aren’t clear. But I will focus below on all of these points, because they are true and worth noting.


It is tragic that two teenage girls perished in the Asiana crash. But given the conflagration that left the plane a charred hulk, it is remarkable that 99% of the passengers survived the accident. Moreover, these were the first two deaths on scheduled commercial flights in the United States this year or, for that matter, in the last 4½ years. During that period, more 3 billion passengers flew with no fatalities in the United States or on U.S. airlines. Two in 3 billion is a very small number.


Did Asiana pilot have enough 777 experience?


c9040 130708231315 arnold barnett hedshot left tease Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!


How small? At that risk per flight, a traveler could on average fly once a day for 4 million years before succumbing to a fatal crash. An American youth at an airport is far more likely to grow up to be presidentthan to perish on today’s flight. (That youth is also more likely to win the Nobel Prize in physics.)


U.S. flying has become so safe that fear of an air journey is almost as farfetched as fear of a ceiling collapse at the grocery store. That circumstance is a remarkable tribute to the efforts of airlines, aircraft manufacturers, governments, the media and a flying public that holds aviation to the highest standards of safety.


Yet we should not tolerate even two deaths if they can plausibly be avoided. For that reason, we need to study carefully what went wrong on Asiana Flight 214 to minimize the risk of recurrence. We should resist the temptation to characterize what happened as pilot error, which can lead to the fatalistic view that “to err is human” and that these things are bound to happen. Even if the pilots did err in some way, the germane question is why.



c9040 bttn close Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!
c9040 130708160306 bts sfo crash first responders 00021817 story body Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!First responder: ‘We had no time’



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c9040 130708150916 qmb sullenberger asiana crash investigation 00000124 story body Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Hero pilot: ‘There are always surprises’



c9040 bttn close Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!
c9040 130709053450 newday sidner ca asiana crash young survivors 00001420 story body Agoda.com releases its brand new iPad app!Young plane crash survivors speak


It appears Asiana Flight 214′s problem was that it was flying so slowly it eventually stalled and collapsed to the ground.


Shock and survival: Crash through the eyes of children


But why were the pilots unaware of the slow speed? Were some of the instrument readings faulty? Might some of the readings have been hard to interpret (like the confusing readings about the rate of descent that caused a jet to crash in 1992 into a mountain)?


The pilots did get a warning about an impending stall about seven seconds before the plane hit the sea wall. But why was there only a seven-second warning? Could systems be reconfigured so that warnings about potential stalls are issued sooner? To be sure, earlier warnings might yield a proliferation of false alarms, but might that price be worth paying so that true alarms arrive in time to be useful? Had Asiana Flight 214 been warned seven seconds earlier, we might never have heard about it.


Under the circumstances, it is heartening that the National Transportation Safety Board will painstakingly study everything that happened on Asiana Flight 214, and will identify indirect as well as direct causes of the crash. That is the best reason to hope that what happened at San Francisco International Airport will never occur again within our lifetimes. And given all the progress to date in aviation safety, that hope is anything but forlorn.


Follow @CNNOpinion on Twitter.


Join us at Facebook/CNNOpinion.


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Arnold Barnett.





Why plane crashes are survivable

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